The global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year, which would represent the deepest recession since the Second World War, the World Bank has said in its June 2020 Global Economic Prospects report.

“The swift and massive shock of the coronavirus pandemic and shutdown measures to contain it have plunged the global economy into a severe contraction. According to World Bank forecasts, the global economy will shrink by 5.2% this year. That would represent the deepest recession since the Second World War, with the largest fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870,” reads the report.

Economic activity among advanced economies is anticipated to shrink 7% in 2020 as domestic demand and supply, trade, and finance have been severely disrupted.

“Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to shrink by 2.5% this year, their first contraction as a group in at least sixty years. Per capita incomes are expected to decline by 3.6%, which will tip millions of people into extreme poverty this year. The blow is hitting hardest in countries where the pandemic has been the most severe and where there is heavy reliance on global trade, tourism, commodity exports, and external financing,” World Bank believes.

Europe and Central Asia

The regional economy is forecast to contract by 4.7%, with recessions in nearly all countries. The outlook assumes that government restrictions are gradually lifted by the start of the second half of the year. In a scenario in which the effects of the pandemic wane and trade and investment recover, Europe and Central Asia growth would be anticipated to revive to 3.6 percent in 2021.

For Armenia, the World Bank report forecasts a 2.8% decline in 2020 and 4.9% economic growth in 2021.

The forecast for Georgia notes a 4.8% decline for 2020 and 4% growth in 2021. For Azerbaijan, the indicators stand at 2.6% and 2.2%, respectively. The World Bank report notes that Turkey’s economy will contract by 3.8% in 2020 and experience 5% growth next year,

According to World Bank, Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 6% this year, reflecting a jump in COVID-19 cases and the collapse in oil prices. The growth in 2021 will make 2.7%.