Yerevan/Mediamax/. In the first half of 2012, Armenia’s economy will face the negative impact of slowing credit growth, the report of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) “CIS Macromonitor” for December 2011 reads.

According to EDB report, in the absence of economic shocks in the world like those of 2008, this impact will be moderate, Mediamax reports.

The report says that Armenia’s banking system slowed down the growth of lending to the economy: as of the third quarter, the nominal volume of credits issued grew by 5,4% as compared to the previous quarter. At the same time, the growth of lending in the second and first quarters made 10,4% and 8,6% correspondingly.

The Eurasian Development Bank also mentions that the reduction in lending activity has not yet had an obvious impact on the dynamics of indicators of bank soundness.

The assessment of EDB’s economic outlook for Armenia in longer perspective is on the whole optimistic. “Proceeding from the fact that Armenia’s economy marks 4-5% growth in conditions of stagnation in investments, especially in construction, we look forward to a gradual acceleration of economic growth in Armenia, at least till 6-7%, given recovery of moderate growth in these kinds of economic activity,” the report reads.

At the same time, EDB says, Armenia’s economy experiences a number of structural problems: the highest unemployment rate in the region (according to the data of the World Bank for 2008 - 28,6%, and 50% among young people up to 24 years old) and permanent deficit of the external balance.

“The long-term solution of both problems apparently lies in increasing the competitiveness of Armenian economy, reducing the monopoly on markets, improving the business environment and developing the transport infrastructure. The conditions for increasing the economic stability are: diversification of country’s export, over 60% of which currently account for metals and ores, as well as the gradual reduction of the external debt relative to GDP,” the report of the Eurasian Development Bank reads.