Yerevan /Mediamax/. According to forecasts of the Central Bank, economic growth will make 1.5-3.5% in Armenia in the first half of 2009.

Mediamax reports that CB Monetary-Crediting Program for the first quarter of 2009 reads this. At that, growth index from 6 to 9% is forecasted for the second half of the year, as a result of which, the economic growth may make from 4.5 to 7.5% following the year.

The program notes that increase of economic growth speeds starting from the second half of the year will be conditioned by realization of additional economic programs by the government, as well as projects to stimulate small and medium enterprise.

As the experts of the Central Bank note, risks for economic growth decline will be preserved in 2009, the fact being conditioned by decline of demand in the global market, as well as the possible slowdown in the process of realization of the government’s additional programs.

According to the forecasts of the Central Bank, industry growth will make 2-5% in 2009, and in the sphere of services – 8-11%.

According to the forecasts of the Central Bank, inflation will make 5% in Armenia in 2009. However, the document notes that risks are probable both concerning reduction and growth of inflation, conditioned by the processes in the global economy. Increase of prices for gas for Armenian consumers starting from April 1, 2009, will also lead to indirect inflationary risks.

CB forecasts that Armenia’s export volumes will reduce by 35-40% in 2009. At that it is expected that the measures, planned for by the government, will contribute to certain growth of export, which will take place basically in the second half of the year.

According to CB forecasts, small and medium enterprise crediting volumes will increase for by 25-28% in Armenia in 2009.