Analytics at the international consulting firm McKinsey forecast the total revenue of companies, involved in the payment market, to drop by 8-10% (USD 165-210bn) because of the coronavirus pandemic.

Such a significant decrease of revenue can be compared to the situation the market faced during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, when the global payment market had a 10-11% drop in revenue.

Bloomchain.ru reports that depending on how the pandemic unfolds, McKinsey considers two scenarios: the optimistic forecast and the pessimistic one.

The optimistic forecast indicates that the efforts to contain the virus will complete successfully within two months and Europe and the United States. Global GDP will drop by 1.5%, and according to the analysts, the revenue from payments will decrease by about 8%.

According to the pessimistic scenario, which implies a long-lasting pandemic in Europe and the U.S. and new cases in China, global GDP will increase by 4.7%. McKinsey believes that will lead to a 10% drop of payment revenue, which makes over USD 210 billion.

The analysts believe that retail payment and commercial services sectors will lose more revenue than the others. McKinsey estimates that the revenue from traditional payments in retail sale points could decrease by 30-40% in the short term.

The consulting firm adds that coronavirus-related changes in global payment landscape are unavoidable: some payment methods are going to become more popular, and some others will be used less often.


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